How Valensa secures its supply chain through crop forecasting

The company implemented GEMS, a forecasting model used to assess the robustness of the berry and to predict disease spread.
The company implemented GEMS, a forecasting model used to assess the robustness of the berry and to predict disease spread. (@ Boogich / Getty Images)

2018 was a particularly tough year for Florida-based ingredient supplier Valensa. A fungus decimated a significant portion of its supply of saw palmetto berries, used globally as supplement ingredient.

The blight was a call to action for Valensa CEO Umasudhan Palaniswamy.

“It was a very tough season for all of us trying to procure berries,” he said. “And the cost of berries went up because the situation was sporadic. That was a big eye opener for us to understand the crop dynamics and how we should manage these things in the future.”

In the six years since that initial crop scare, the company implemented GEMS, a forecasting model used to assess the robustness of the berry and to predict disease spread. Valensa also relied on expertise from University of Florida researchers to create the tool which better secures saw palmetto berries.

Palaniswamy said Valensa is dependent on sourcing the berries from a network of farms across Florida and southern Georgia. Under GEMS, crop audits are conducted monthly on farms that grow the saw palmetto in which the buds, flowers and even bee activity are assessed. It is a process that determines the maturity of the berry and considers any disease states. The information is then entered into the GEMS software.

The proprietary model gives insight into when and where in these growing regions the berries should be harvested.

“In the past, we never got involved in looking at the berry mapping, the flowering or the maturity of the berries,” Palaniswamy said. “We would just work with some contractors and buy through harvesters.”

Feeding data into the model

Post 2018, saw palmetto berry harvesting began to dramatically change. Valensa sent drones to fly over farmlands to understand the landscape. It implemented geomapping to comprehend berry density because now it is “all about feeding data into the model,” Palaniswamy said. Although it took two growing seasons to fully implement this data collection process, he noted it was perfected in the last three to four years.

However, good data requires a network of skilled people. Valensa created a coalition of experts, from field managers to officials at the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, to gather this data. The information is given to a supply chain team that feeds the data into the forecasting model.

Valensa’s investment into GEMS seems to be working: Since its implementation, the price of berries has remained constant with no disruption to the supply chain, Palaniswamy said.

At any point, Valensa can guarantee 18 to 24 months of inventory on hand—contrast that to 2018 when the cost of berries were three to four times more expensive than average and there was no consistency in supply.

Hurricanes

Hurricanes are a yearly reality for Florida, where the majority of saw palmetto is grown. These weather events are another area in which GEMS predictions come into play.

“We knew 2024 was going to be a year with a lot of hurricanes,” Palaniswamy said, adding that weather data is inputed into GEMS. “We can now work on our harvesting process.”

By “work” he means determining the timing of when to pick the berries. If GEMS knows a hurricane is likely to hit a certain part of Florida, Valensa will coordinate with farmers to pick the crop prior to the major weather event hitting, strategically planning harvesting across the state during hurricane season based on that climate data.

“We look at risk mitigation—if we can properly plan our harvesting and drying process, we will mitigate that risk completely,” Palaniswamy said, adding that the model offers customers peace of mind.

“We offer them stability of supply chain at the right price. As climate change happens, how do we make sure that this crop is sustainable and that we have controlled cultivation methods? We will continue to invest and raise the bar.”

Valensa is creating a GEMS 2.0.