US still the #1 probiotics supplement market, but China is catching up: IPA Chief

13-Nov-2024 - Last updated on 13-Nov-2024 at 14:17 GMT

The United States remains the number one market for probiotic supplementation, but double-digit growth in China could see the Asian country replace the U.S. in “a year, maybe two,” says the executive director of the International Probiotics Association (IPA).

Speaking with NutraIngredients at the recent SupplySide West in Las Vegas, IPA’s George Paraskevakos explained that the global market for probiotic supplements in 2023 closed at US$ 9.4 billion, with growth forecast to be about 7.5% globally for the next four years.

“The U.S. has been, and still is, the number one market for probiotic supplementation,” he said. “What's happening, though, there's been a slight pullback from post-pandemic.”

Pre-pandemic, sales of probiotic dietary supplements in the U.S. had flatlined, growing at about 1% year-over-year, but the pandemic saw the category surge, with double-digit growth reported.

“There's been a pullback,” said Paraskevakos. “We've seen the forecast with the data partners we work with show a more or less about 2% growth over the next four years, so that puts the U.S around $2.3 to $2.4 billion.

“If we look at APAC as a region, [which] is almost $4 billion in terms of probiotic supplementation, China constitutes 50% of that market […] From a growth rate perspective, it's forecasted to grow a double digit 11% or 12%, so from forecasts and modeling that we have in the next four years, China will leapfrog the U.S. market as the biggest probiotic supplement market, if not in a year, maybe two.”

All biotics

Paraskevakos also discussed IPA’s progress since it announced its expanded scope at the same event 12 months ago. He said the organization is already working on multiple manuscripts, including one by renowned prebiotic expert Koen Venema, which is currently being reviewed for publication.

“Hopefully we'll get it out soon, before the end of the year,” he said. “We have a second one in the background as well that we'll look at an overview of the landscape on a regulatory perspective. Most of that is also done.”

Another paper on postbiotics is being prepared, which was shared with the IPA membership and received over 300 comments.

Paraskevakos also discussed the association’s work in the companion animal and infant supplement categories.

Watch the video for the full interview.