Whole grain take-up is driven by industry
by an industry that has had to make swift and judicious adjustments
to formulations in light of the new Dietary Guidelines for
Americans, according to a new report by Packaged Facts.
The report entitled 'The US Market for Whole Grain/High Fiber Foods' claims that the food industry is "poised for a dramatic, fundamental change in the way grain-based products are manufactured and marketed."
It focuses on packaged foods containing a significant amount of whole grain-derived fiber, but also contains information on trends in naturally high fiber and fortified foods and beverages. Most of the products taken into account carry a health claim approved by the FDA or a medical association.
Published in January, the Dietary Guidelines champion whole grains as a source of dietary fiber, of which they recommend adults consume between 25-30g a day.
The overall US market for whole grain and high fiber foods grew less than one percent between 2000 and 2004, from $4.75 billion to $4.79 billion, says Packaged Facts. But a closer look at the individual categories shows considerably more dynamism.
Cereals still account for the lion's share of the market, but this slipped from 71.2 to 64.4 percent. Of the small-but-growing categories, snacks increased its share the most, from 12.3 to 16.2 percent, and beverages from 1.8 to 3.8 percent.
The ebb and flow of product introductions and discontinuations has created an eddy of limited growth over the past four years, but all the while the market has been gathering momentum for a dramatic growth spurt.
"US retail sales of whole grain and high fiber foods will spike in 2005 and decline gradually in subsequent years," said Don Montuori, acquisitions editor for Packaged Facts.
Growth is forecasted to stabilize at around 6 percent in 2009, with sales of $7.5 billion.
"The early growth will stem from health innovations in foods consumers already eat, such as recent changes in cereals, as opposed to consumers' choosing to eat different kinds of foods."
Grain-based food marketers including Kellogg and Sara Lee started reformulating their products with whole grains last year in anticipation of the Dietary Guidelines.
General Mills made the greatest concession to grains, however, announcing that it planned to reformulate all its "Big G" cereal brands to whole grains by 2005 - a move that sends a loud, clear message of confidence in the future of whole grain, despite its admission that "the switch alone was not guaranteed to increase sales of the brands".
But Packaged Facts' figures don't bear out any suggestion that the whole grain message is not getting through to consumers, since they are clearly making an active decision to buy whole grain stacks and beverages, the two categories that showed the most growth and are also most likely to be fortified with fiber.
And spiraling disillusion with the low-carb lifestyle may also prove good news for whole grain food marketers:
"Whole grains seem certain to fill that growth slot in 2005 - but also to leave a more lasting mark on the landscape than Atkins and other diet plans have managed to do," predicts Packaged Facts.
